This morning I interviewed Eric Davis, professor of political science at Middlebury College, about the Welch / Rainville race. Professor Davis has been at Middlebury since 1977 and really knows the Vermont political tundra. He is not endorsing either candidate. The following is a rough transcription of his thoughts on the Welch race.
Here is Prof. Davis's prediction for the VT-AL seat:
50% probability Welch narrow win
30% probability Welch wins big
20% Rainville narrow win
Is Vermont the most worrisome democratic seat?
No, not according to Davis. The most worrisome to the Democrats are:
1. IA-03, Leonard Boswell, is most troublesome democratic seat.
2. OH-06, the seat that Ted Strickland is vacating.
Vermont is probably in the top 5 though.
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