Part II of my talk with Professor Eric Davis, a political science professor at Middlebury. These are notes from the discussion:
Sanders and Leahy in relation to Welch
Bernie Sanders will win big, and the only question is whether he will break 60%. But he needs to focus, and cannot spend much effort helping Welch because he has to worry about his opponent outspending him 2-1.
Senator Leahy will be a bigger help to Welch, and has cancelled some overseas trips this summer to help him. Leahy is the biggest vote-getter in Vermont, and does have coattails even when he isn't formally running. In addition, Carolyn Dwyer, who ran Leahy's 2004 campaign, is Welch's campaign manager. This type of experience will really prove its value in the next 70 days or so.
Power of Incumbency
Incumbents almost never lose in Vermont. Since 1962, only two "top of the ticket" (Governor, Senator, Congressman) incumbents have lost. Peter Smith lost in 1990 to Bernie Sanders. Then you have to go back to 1962 to find another. Vermonters like incumbents, largely because the state is so small they tend to know their representatives. Peter Welch and Rainville are just not as well known statewide, so there is no incumbency advantage.
Cost to run a Vermont campaign
$600K - $800K to run a statewide race in Vermont. Once over that threshold the money matters to less.
Voter Checklist
In 2002, there were 418,000 on checklist (slightly high b/c it takes a while to remove dead people in Vermont). Probably real number is under 400K. 232K voted in 2002. In 2004, 314K voted. Prediction from Prof. Davis:: about 250K will vote this fall.
Ticket Splitting
There was 1/3 ticket splitting in 2004. 60% Kerry, 60% Governor Douglas (a Republican). There will likely be less this time.