My prediction is that a lot of Vermonters who vote for Welch are also going to vote for Douglas, the Republican incumbent governor. Why am I predicting this, beyond the obvious fact that a lot of people know Douglas?
Having talked to probably 100 people in the state, this is what I hear from people consistently across demographic groups (in order) 1. They are tired of Vermont's high and uncompetitive taxes 2. The job situtation isn't great in the state. 3. Gas prices. Note that they are all economic pocketbook issues.
The problem is, the democratically controlled legislature has spent two years focusing on reforming health care, which doesn't register in the top three. Granted this is not a formal poll.
Douglas is going to win in a landslide because he understands the tax and economic frustration people are experiencing.
Welch is going to win because he'll just stay on Bush like white on rice. People hate Bush in this state with a true passion. It's not about Rainville - it's about Welch vs. Bush.